Monday, March 24, 2014

Making Up Causality

MAIG and IACP supporters like to stretch the truth to push for more gun restrictions:
Chicago implemented a mandatory stolen firearm reporting law last year and watched its previously record-breaking homicide numbers plummet to the lowest level in 50 years.

Read more here:
--Darryl Forté is the Kansas City police chief and Sly James is the mayor.

Read more here:

Really?  That's the reason?  What timeframe are we talking about?  Which law specifically do you mean?

It's true, Chicago has seen a drop in murders.  Let's look at some other possible factors.

1) One of the worst/coldest winters we've seen in decades. 

2)  A little lawsuit declaring Chicago's ban on most firearms, including all handguns, unconstitutional.

3) The passing of Concealed Carry in Illinois w/ thousands of licenses being issued in the last few weeks.

But according to these, unbiased I'm sure, individuals, the ONLY cause is the passage of a 'mandatory reporting' law.  Let's look at that.  Someone knowingly selling to a criminal is going to care about one more law making it illegaller?  Yeah.  OK.  Pull the other one.  The correlation is pretty weak in the first place, never mind trying to claim pure causality.  I'll also bet they can't point to any cases of prosecution using these laws.

Just another

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Sigivald said...

What I notice is that he didn't say how many reports Chicago PD got over that time period.

Was it even a tenth as many reports as the delta in murders?

If he wants to try for a causal claim, he should be telling us numbers for such reports.

Weer'd Beard said...

plus lost and stolen isn't anything new. I believe it's been instated in at least a half-dozen other states, plus municipalities.

Remember for something to be causative it needs to be repeated.

Has it'